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MISSION

Ecanal conducts economic research and analysis of economic trends in Mexico's risks and opportunities, and of government policy from the perspective of the private sector with a normative approach. It offers business a structured view of key economic issues and forecasts with a straightforward, direct language, as an aid to company planning.

WHERE IS THE ECONOMY? ( 24 December 2016)

We do not revise our page frequently in order for our readers to see what has been our view of Mexico and its external and political context, which should not change in the short term. The previous revision was made on 4 January 2016. This method also enables ourselves to see what was right or wrong in our past views and appraise what has changed and to what extent it makes a difference to numeric economic indicators or even fundamentals. Our view last January that massive monetary stimulation by the central banks of Japan and the euro zone would be largely ineffective has been right so far. Our view that China would resort to increasing fiscal and monetary stimulus was right too.  So it was that the US is the only large country with a clear growth outlook for 2016, around 2% in 2016. We were only partly right in expecting the Fed to increase interest rates during 2016, rather than only once at the end of the year. This reinforces our view of weakness in global demand.